OTB Based Forecast

Summary

OTB based forecast is based on the daily On-The-Book figures, e.g. room bookings, restaurant covers or booked revenue from Sales and Catering for Banquet and Conference. OTB based forecast has a pickup statistic where you can see booking patterns and compare your OTB this year to OTB same date or weekday last year. When PMI has at least one year pickup history, you can use the PMI forecast to help you update your Live Forecast.

Intended Users

General Manager, Hotel Manager, Revenue Manager, Booking Manager and Department Heads.

Requirements

The department has to be connected to a Property Management System, PMS, or Point of Sales Systems, POS, to retrieve covers, guests or revenue.

Instructions

1. If this department is connected to a source system (PMI retrieves cover and/or revenue), use the functionality Pickups. The OTB data will be displayed in the OTB fields in the report.

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Before you start Calculating Pickups and making the actual Live Forecast, make sure that you know what available data you already have. If you have been using PMI for more than a year, you definitely have enough data to use, e.g. to calculate pickups based on the latest Booking Pace. If you do not have enough history in PMI to use booking pace, choose the most updated data (Last year > Budget > Forecast).

2. Choose the function Copy to Live Forecast in the Tools menu. Then you can choose between Last Year, Budget and Forecast, and PMI will insert the deviance between OTB and your choice in the field Pickups. Click on Approve. OTB + pickups constitute your live forecast.

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Copy to live forecast 1.PNG

3. If you have enough historical data, you can choose the Calculate Live Forecast function in the Tools menu. The new window that appears has a logic time span based on a comparable period from last year (queries are based on history, OTB and booking pace). If you want to use another period, use the calendar to define this (min. 21 days’ time span).

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For the average room rate you can adjust the expected revenue. E.g. if your average room rates are up 5% from the same period last year, you change the percentage to 105%; or if it is 2% lower, then you enter 98%.

In brief, PMI will calculate pickups within matching lead time into the matching month of last year. Further, PMI will calculate the market development and finally adjust for real changes of the booking pace. Click on Calculate and then OK if you want to use the data from the grid.

The median number is found by sorting a series of numbers by size and using the middle value. This method is often used in order to avoid extreme values being taken into consideration in the calculation.

The average is found by summarizing all the numbers in a series, then dividing the total by the number of entries. The average is used to tell us what a typical number in this series is.

Respect Daily Capacity is a functionality that limits the daily live pickups of covers from exceeding the physical capacity of the department hotel.

After the algorithm has calculated the live pickups and wash (reduction of groups), including excess demand.

Note that the pickup value from this calculation is not a defined target, but a calculated pickup based on what you currently have as OTB, normal pickups, market situation and development, and booking pace. In other words, what you normally should be able to pick up.

Note that the average revenue needs to be revised according to your expectations, the market situation and types of guests.

Source – should you use an external Revenue Management System you are able to have that integrated into PMI, it will then be imported daily from that file into PMI.

4. When you have adjusted the percentage for the Average Room Revenue, you click the Calculate button, and if the new suggestion looks good, you choose Accept.

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5. If you want to reset your pickups, to clean or start all over again, you can use the Reset Pickup function, and the pickup will be set to 0.

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How to Submit to Forecast

If you have more than one year of history for your department in PMI, then you can choose the option to use seasons to calculate Revenue Drivers. You define your Seasons by creating a new calendar for your department. The advantage of using Seasons is if you have periods (seasons) with similar activity for more than a month, and you can improve your forecasting accuracy, while you have several days to calculate the historical median.

When you have a Revenue Driver that updates automatically, you will see a calculator icon on the left side of the dates. If you see a hand sign, then you have to update it manually. If you prefer that PMI should calculate with help from the revenue driver again, you click on the hand sign and the calculator appears. Remember to save, or PMI will use the last saved view the next time you visit the module.

Tools

You are able to export to Excel or PDF for reporting purposes.

Recommendations

When you have an OTB based forecast, we recommend you to get to know the pickup statistic, to see the changes in the booking pattern and to compare to last year. If you follow the changes daily, you can observe new trends and quickly adjust your daily operation.

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