What is the Rooms Live forecast
The Rooms Live forecast is a rolling forecast that is updated regularly throughout the month depending on the latest expectations due to changes in the market, new reservations, cancellations, etc.
It uses forecasted number of room nights and Average Room Rate (ARR) to calculate the Total room revenue for each day.
There is also an option to forecast based on Guest nights and Average Guest Rate.
What is its purpose?
There are 3 main purposes of the rooms live forecast:
- Provides a reliable 12 month forecast for Room Revenue
- Allows you to track how you are pacing month to date in relation to your month end goal.
- A reliable Room Revenue forecast allows you to effectively plan other resources using this forecast as a basis. For example, staffing in housekeeping, checking in and out at the Front desk and food purchases for breakfast.
The Rooms Live forecast provides you with information that allows you to:
- Foresee the future demand with the lowest margin of error
- Optimize RevPAR by attracting the” right” segments at the right time
- Place a realistic sales target for the next 12 months
It is recommended to have a Live Forecast for a minimum of 12 months. When a month has ended, update the same month for next year.
This ensures the hotel has an updated sales forecast and target for the coming year that covers annual seasonality. With a 12-18 months forecast you are better prepared for the upcoming budget period.
- Intended users
- What is the forecasting process in R&P?
- How to access the screen?
- What features are available on the Room Live forecast page?
- Department selector
- Date picker -All days
- Date picker – Days, Months, Month
- Actionable insights
- Period summary / Periodic adjustment
- PMI index
- Live forecast – table view with comparative data set
- Live forecast – graph view
- On The Books
- OTB development
- Reset table view
- Use PMI Prediction
- Scroll arrows
- Expand all
- Expander arrow
- Actionable insights: month overview
- Personal View Options
- Rooms OTB change last X days
Department Heads, Revenue Manager, Financial Controller and General Manager.
What is the forecasting process in R&P? PMI best practice process is as follows:
- Check Rooms forecast: Update and submit rooms forecast for the period you are working with (Submit Live forecast in Tools to Forecast and Budget)
- Check Other forecasts: Update and submit other forecasts for 12-15 months rolling (Submit from Live forecast / Submit several from Live forecast to Forecast and Budget)
- Check productivity targets/hours for all departments: Revise and save productivity targets (for operational departments) and hours (for Admin dept. etc) if needed. Figures in the Budget & Forecast module should match your staff module figures.
- Ensure all HOD’s make schedules according to SMART Forecast: Update schedule and submit in PMI if this module is in use, otherwise update schedules in your time keeping system (TKS).
Best Practise – Daily routine in Room Live forecast
- Look at yesterdays figures (Room nights). What did you end up with compared to what you last saved? Hover over Live forecast figures to see the figures last saved.
- How does the OTB look for the rest of the week and upcoming weeks? Do you expect more or less?
- Look at the upcoming 10-14 days in the Live forecast column. Do you agree with the suggested Live forecast? Or do you need to make adjustments in the Pickup column for one or several days?
- Add or reduce rooms. Edit in the pickup column. Don’t forget to click on the auto icon next to the date so that you can make manual changes. Remember to also check and adjust ARR if needed.
- OTB + Pickups = Live forecast
- Save your changes. Remember that your Live forecast figures are what populates the cost drivers for all the cockpits. These are not static and can change day by day.
Best Practise – Monthly routines in Room Live forecast
- Update current months pickups. Look for days that stand out, too many or too few rooms.
- Move on to the 2 next months or as per your property/chain guidelines
- Open the Tools setting
- Submit from Live forecast
- Choose the period
- When submitting more than 1 month, remember that you can do anything between 3-15 months depending on your property/chain guidelines
- Remember that you cannot submit from Live forecast for a month that is already active.
How to access the screen?
The Room Live forecast screen is currently accessed from the Live forecast page. Access this page by using the view toggle
What features are available on the Room Live forecast page?
1. Department selector
Default department is the one you visited last time you logged in. Use the downward pointing arrow to view all departments available. Choose the department you want to focus on. Room forecasting is the only department included in the new version. All other departments are the current version, which is accessible from this screen.
2a. Date picker – All days
Select day(s) of the week to view/forecast. Each day can be selected separately, or in combination with one or more days, by ticking/unticking the check boxes.
2b. Date picker – Days, Months, Month
When entering the Room Forecast, the default period appears. For example, today is 12 March 2022, so the default setting will show 7 days prior and 21 days into the future. i.e. Rolling 28 days. This is personalized in Personal View Settings.
By clicking on the calendar icon or the single down pointed arrow, more combinations appear i.e. Days, Months and Month. Please note that this function affects conditions within the page i.e. you can only copy Budget and Forecast figures if you have selected a full calendar month.
3. Actionable insights
Review recommended action points that can directly affect your Live forecast for the selected period. Take a look at these items before making updates to the Live forecast. Read more here.
4. and 9. Period summary / Periodic adjustment
Use this for future periods, when you don’t yet have forecast details on a daily level.
Here, you can make adjustments to a full period Live forecast. The value will then be allocated automatically on a day-by-day basis. Read more here.
5. PMI index
This measures your resource and productivity management skills on a department level. The score indicates how well your productivity management skills and habits are according to PMI best practices. A PMI index score of 8 out of 10 is good, with 8.5 or above considered great. This is your property score. Read more here.
6a. & 6c. Live forecast – table view with comparative data set
Review the data table for day-by-day Live forecast details of the selected period here. Adjust your pickups and add /edit comments. Read more here.
6b. Live forecast – graph view
A visual overview of selected period. Hovering over a specific day displays a snapshot. When you select a calendar month, click on a future date and use the input box to adjust the Live Forecast. If your property forecasts on total segment level activate Enable Zoom and drag the Forecasted pickups and ARR Live Forecast lines up or down and save your changes in the graph. Changes made are displayed in the Live forecast. Read more here.
7. On The Books
Use the graph to analyse the booking pattern at your property. Compare the various room segments OTB, the ARR (Average Room Rate) and room revenue for a specific period. Hover over the comparative variables (when in active form) in the sub header to highlight it in the graph. Read more here.
8. OTB development
Here you have two graphs, which gives you more comparative data to explore. Hover over the variables (when in active form) in the sub header to highlight it in the graph. Read more here.
Export data to Microsoft Excel or Google Sheets. Useful for creating reports and analysis.
10b. Reset table view
This button is not available in the graph view. It resets any changes you make to the set up. I.e. if you pin a column left/right you can reset
10c. Use PMI Prediction
When this button is activated you are choosing to accept and use PMI Prediction instead of your Live forecast figures. PMI uses a combination of Machine Learning (ML) and statistical models to automate forecasting of revenue and units (covers, room nights, guest nights etc.). It uses historical data to identify trends (seasons) and adapts to specific properties over time based on their activity. Your Live forecast figures are changed to what PMI Prediction is for the period. Full amount is broken down on a day-to-day level so it spreads the full amount. Read more PMI Prediction explanation
Here you find the overview of all notes made by you and your colleagues. This makes is easy to understand and follow up on changes made to a specific forecast. Notes can only be edited in the table, and view only in the graph.
This button is greyed out until changes are made and saved. It is highlighted in blue when its ready to use. It undoes any (saved) changes which were made to any editable rows in the table or graph. This cannot be undone and any previous changes made would be lost. The amount of notes are always displayed.
This button ensures all your changes are saved. These are instantly reflected throughout the screen. A note appears in the right hand corner informing you that your changes have been successful or not.
10g. Scroll arrows
Click on the arrow (left or right) to scroll the screen in the corresponding direction.
10h. Expand all
By activating this functionality you populate the table with all the active room segments available at the property.
10i. Expander arrow
This allows you to collapse/expand the screen.
11. Actionable insights: month overview
It displays priority alerts for the full month of the start date selected, and can include up to 12 months. Seasons for your property are also highlighted. Read more here.
All tools available in Room Live forecast. Read more here.
13. Personal View Options
All view options available to your user profile. Read more here.
14. Rooms OTB change last X days
Rooms OTB change last 7 days – Displays the change compared to 7 days ago. Green color indicates an increase in rooms and red color a decline in rooms. The darker the color, the larger the change.