- What is the Live forecast?
- What is the purpose of the Live forecast?
- How is a Live forecast created?
- How to use the Live forecast?
What is the Live forecast?
The Live forecast in PMI is a daily revenue forecast. It is a rolling forecast which should be updated daily depending on the latest expectations due to changes in the market, new reservations, cancellations, etc.
A Live forecast is created for all areas of the business that generate income. This includes room revenue, food & beverage revenue, and other revenue.
The Live forecast updates with actual data for past days, and current Live forecast for future days. This differs from the standard monthly Forecast in PMI, which, once set, does not change.
The Forecast serves as a monthly goal or target. The Live forecast allows you to track whether you are on track to meet the monthly Forecast. This gives you opportunity to adjust your short-term plan during the month for a greater chance of meeting your goal.
What is the purpose of the Live forecast?
There are 3 main purposes of the Live forecast:
- Provides a reliable and up to date 12-month forecast
- Allows you to track how you are pacing month to date in relation to your month end goal (aka monthly Forecast).
- A reliable Live forecast allows you to effectively plan other resources using this forecast as a basis. For example, staffing in housekeeping and food purchases for breakfast.
It is PMI best practice to have a Live forecast in PMI for a minimum of 12 months. When a month has ended, update the Live forecast for the same month for next year.
This ensures that the hotel has an updated sales forecast and target for the coming year that covers annual seasonality. With a 12-18 month’s forecast, you are better prepared for the upcoming budget period. PMI Prediction will always forecast the next 16 months rolling.
How is a Live forecast created?
The way a Live forecast is created is dependent on the configuration settings of your property’s Live forecast. There are 3 main set up modes:
- PMI Automation (PMI Prediction and ML (Machine Learning) Drivers): The Live forecast is automated based on either PMI Prediction or ML Drivers, depending on department type. There is an option to manually override the prediction for a specific day by using the Pickup/Adjust column.
- Import: The Live forecast is imported daily from an external source. Here is an option to manually override the prediction for a specific day by using the Pickup/Adjust column, until a new forecast is imported.
- Manual: No automatic forecasting is used. User needs to manually input forecast values for all days.
How to use the Live forecast?
Regardless of which Live forecast option is being used, there are 3 main actions to be taken in the Live forecast module for each department:
Daily (5 minutes):
- Check yesterday’s actual result compared to the last saved Live forecast. Add a comment if needed.
- Review actuals compared to last saved Live forecast month to date.
- Check the pick-up column for future days to verify that they are realistic. Adjust as needed.
- Save changes
Weekly: (30 minutes)
- Check Live forecast for the next 3 months. Make any adjustments needed and save. (30 mins)
Monthly: (1 hour)
The Rooms Live forecast should always be updated first, before the other departments, as the rooms forecast will affect many driver-based forecasts.
Navigate to Live forecast via the menu.
- Select the relevant department.
- Select month or period to view.
- Pick-up statistics – click the icon to view and analyse the booking pattern for different Segments and Average Room Rate (ARR).
- Tools – use this to adjust the Live forecast set-up, copy Live forecast to Forecast, and export data. Access will vary depending on user rights.
- View options – Choose what information you would like displayed in the Live forecast table. The options available may vary depending on the Live forecast set-up.
Live forecast table
- The columns showing will vary depending on set up, selected department, and view options selected. Hover over a column to view a tooltip explaining which data is being shown.
- The Live forecast and PMI Prediction column shows actual result for past days.
- Red line – Indicates today’s date. Days above the red line are historic and cannot be edited. Days below the red line are future dates and can be adjusted as needed.
- Icons – Indicate how the day’s Live forecast was created
- Person = Manually updated
- Robot = PMI Prediction
- If you want to edit an automated row, click the Robot icon and manual edits will be enabled.
- Person with cog = A manually created driver has been used. (Applicable only in driver-based forecasts)
- Paper with arrow = Forecast is imported from external file
- Comments – Click to review and add comments to a specific day. Use this to note any deviance from normal volumes and rates. These comments will be retrieved next year from matching weekdays. Commented days/segments are marked with scribbled sheet icons.
How to edit the Live forecast?
- The only editable columns in the Live forecast are the pick-up columns on future days.
- For past days, the Pickups column shows the difference between the actual result, and the last saved Forecast. The Live forecast column shows actuals for past days.
- If your property has a segment level Live forecast, click the plus sign by the date to view the segments and update the date. To make segments visible at all times, select this in the View option.
- Insert a positive number to increase the Live forecast by that amount. Insert a negative number to reduce the number by this amount.
- For ARR (Average Room Rate), the use of the pickup column depends on the configuration setting ‘Use ARR pickup calculator for manual forecasts’ in Tools. If enabled, the ARR pick-up column will only apply to the room nights entered in the Pick-up column. For all other room nights, the OTB ARR value will be used. If it is disabled, the ARR in the Pick-up column will apply to all room nights, i.e., the expected result.
- Once you have made changes, don’t forget to press save.