Room Live Forecast: Actionable insights explained

Contents:

What and how

Data file missing

OTB alert

Forecast alert

Threshold calculations

What and How?

The Actionable insights (recommended action points) is a visual presentation of all action points, that can affect your Live Forecast. Two standard messages appear

  • This example informs you of a normal and/or priority alert (always in red text). Its triggered based on a threshold calculation. Click “Review and take action!” to get started.
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2. This example shows “You have no required actions for now”.

3 types of alerts can appear on this tile. Missing data files, OTB (on the book) values alerts, or Forecast alerts. Alerts arise from the latest imported data updated each morning. Missing files alert appears irrelevant of the period chosen, however the OTB and Forecast alerts is directly impacted by the period chosen.

The threshold calculations for these alerts based on quartiles. Its a statistical term used to describe a data set into four equal parts, based on the values and how they compare to the entire data set. There are three quartiles, first, second and third represented by Q 1, Q 2 and Q 3. Q 2 is nothing but the median, since it indicates the position of the item in the list and is a positional average.

Workflow of alerts

  1. Data files missing. There are 3 types, OTB, revenue and rooms/guests. Below is an example of an OTB missing file. This is a “red flag”, missing file equals incorrect figures. Deal with it as soon as possible i.e. follow up with your IT or person responsible. The alert is removed from the system once said file is imported into PMI.
  1. Click “Review and take action!” to get started

2. OTB alert. There are 3 types, Room nights, ARR and guest nights. Separately checked and independent of each other. These are noticeable changes, based on the PMI prediction. I.e. the current OTB for room nights and ARR are compared to the historical OTB values for the same season and weekday, and with the same lead time.

  • Room nights thresholds: A normal alert is triggered if the value is 25% higher than the higher (third) quartile, or lower than 25% of the lower (first) quartile. It becomes a priority alert if the value is 50% higher than the higher (third) quartile, or lower than 50% of the lower (first) quartile.
  • ARR thresholds: A normal alert is triggered if the value is 10% higher than the higher (third) quartile, or lower than 10% of the lower (first) quartile. It becomes a priority alert if the value is 33% higher than the higher (third) quartile, or lower than 33% of the lower (first) quartile.
  • Guest nights the OTB guest factor for each day is compared to the Guest Night factor table (which is in Tools). Lead time is not considered for guest nights, as the OTB is compared to the season and weekday actual value. Please note that days with less than 20 room nights are not checked. Guest night thresholds: A normal alert is triggered if the factor is 50% higher/lower than the average. It becomes a priority alert if the factor is more than twice the normal average, or, lower than 1.00. It most cases 50% lower will bring the factor below 1.0, making it a priority alert.
  1. Click “Review and take action!” or “Show more” depending where the alert appears
  2. Overview of all alerts for the period chosen appears. Confirm status of each alert by
  3. Changing status to “This is correct”, or
  4. Click on pop out icon to view the specific date in “Adjust Live forecast” popup and make necessary changes.
  5. Click “Save” button on the popup to confirm all changes. A message appears to show that the graph and table is updated.
  6. Click “Refresh Insights” to refresh the popup or “Close” when you have completed some tasks, and you will go back at a later stage to complete the rest of the period.
3. Forecast alert. Here the alerts are based on Room nights and ARR. Forecasted guest nights are not checked.
  • Room nights thresholds: A normal alert is triggered if the Live forecast is 25% higher or lower than the PMI prediction, and at least 20 rooms. It becomes a priority alert if the Live forecast is 40% higher or lower than the PMI prediction, and at least 30 rooms.
  • ARR thresholds: A normal alert is triggered if the value is 10% higher than the higher (third) quartile, or lower than 10% of the lower (first) quartile. It becomes a priority alert if the value is 33% higher than the higher (third) quartile, or lower than 33% of the lower (first) quartile.

  1. Click “Review and take action!
  2. Overview of all alerts for the period chosen appears. Confirm status of each alert by
  3. Changing status to “This is correct”, or
  4. Click on pop out icon to view the specific date in “Adjust Live forecast” popup and make necessary changes.
  5. Use PMI prediction“, and these figures will populate throughout the chosen period.
  6. Click “Save” button on the popup to confirm all changes. A message appears to show that the graph and table is updated.
  7. Click “Refresh Insights” to refresh the popup or “Close” when you have completed some tasks, and you will go back at a later stage to complete the rest of the period.

Threshold calculations

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