The Express Planner in PMI is a forecasting tool available to properties with the Profit and Loss module activated. It creates an automated monthly forecast for all non-room revenue departments, and labor hours based on historic data and the settings inputted.
See below for a detailed explanation of the calculations used by the Express Planner:
Step 1: Calculate historical proportion between Room revenue and Non-Room revenue
PMI calculates the proportion between room and non-room revenue for the year selected in settings (1.).
Step 2: Apply same proportions to Forecast months, excluding anomalies
This proportion will then be applied to the Live forecast room revenue for the period that the Express planner is being run, to calculate the forecasted non-room revenue and total revenue. The option selected in settings (2b) will determine whether a monthly specific proportion or the yearly average will apply. In this example, the option “Same month + growth” has been used.
As you can see, in this example, February is an anomaly. The property was not operating as normal this month due to hotel rennovations, so this should be excluded from the forecast. In the “Rules for general setting page”, set the minimum room revenue for a normal operating month.
For any month where the room revenue is below the amount specified here, the yearly proportions and not the monthly proportion will be used, excluding the month that was below the minimum revenue threshold.
Step 3: Apply additional growth percentage
Until now, the assumption has been that non-room revenue will grow in the same proportion as room revenue. If this is not the case and you expect that there will be additional growth in the non-room departments, you can set the additional growth percentage that you expect in question 2a.
The percentage you’ve selected here will then be used to increase the non-room revenue as calculated in step 2
Step 4: Split Non-room revenue forecast into divisions, excluding anomalies
The divisions mentioned here, are divisions as set up in PMI.
Before we can split the forecasted non-room revenue into divisions, we first have to determine what the split was in the historical year that was selected in question 1.
These proportions will then be applied to the forecasted total revenue (calculated in step 3) to calculate the forecasted divisional revenue.
In the historical year, the Spa revenue for January is 0, which, compared to the rest of the year, is not normal. To ensure this anomaly is not included in the forecast, users can specify the minimum percentage of total revenue a division must be. This setting can be found in the “Rules for general settings” page. For any month where the divisional percentage is less than the specified percentage, the monthly specific percentage will not be used but a yearly average instead.
Step 5: Split divisional revenue into departments
The divisional revenue is then split into departments. Settings 3 and 4 in “Rules for non-room revenue” page will apply to this step.
Setting 3 will determine the data used to determine the proportional split of the divisional revenue into departments. This percentage split will then be applied to the forecasted divisional revenue calculated in step 4 to determine the forecasted departmental revenue.
- If you’ve selected the “Split the same as the past 12 months” data, the most recent completed set of 12 months will be used to calculate the proportion split between departments. If you’ve selected to apply period locking to actuals and the last month has not yet been locked, it will not be considered when determining the past 12 months. If the last month has been locked, it will be included in the last 12-month period.
- If you’ve selected “The same split as the year selected above” the split between departments will be calculated using the data in the historical year selected in question 1.
If you’ve determined that the proportional split calculated above is not a reliable method to determine the revenue for a specific department, you can choose this department in question 4. Choose between Guest nights, Room nights, Total revenue and Room revenue as a revenue driver. You can then assign a value to this driver. Room nights and guest nights will be a monetary value, while Room revenue and Total revenue will be a percentage.
The revenue calculated for the department specified in question 4 will be deducted from the divisional revenue. The remaining revenue will then be split into departments.
For this example, we’ve selected “Split the same as the past 12 months” option. Any department selected in question 4 will also be excluded when determining the proportional split.
This proportional split is then be applied to the remaining forecasted divisional revenue calculated to determine the forecasted department revenue.
Step 6: Split departmental revenue into segments (where applicable)
For departments where the “Segments” option under settings in the Budget & Forecast page has been selected, the departmental revenue calculated in step 5 will be split into these segments.
We will then determine what the split per department was in the past 12 months.
The proportional split calculated above will then be applied to the departmental revenue calculated in Step 5 to determine the revenue per segment.
Labor hours calculation
Step 7: Calculate historical productivity
The option selected in settings 3 will determine what data is used to calculate the productivity for each labor department. The productivity figure will then be used to calculate the hours to be forecasted, based on the cost driver selected in the cockpit for each department.
If you’ve selected the option “Average for the last 12 months”, the data as per the most recent completed set of 12 months will be used. If you’ve selected to apply period locking to actuals and the last month has not yet been locked, it will not be considered when determining the past 12 months. If the previous month have been locked, it will be included in the 12 months.
If you’ve selected the option “Average for the historic data chosen”, the productivity will be calculated based on the historical data that you selected in settings 1.
Based on the option selected in settings 3, an average productivity figure will be calculated. For the example, we’ve selected the option “Average for the last 12 months”.
Step 8: Add productivity adjustment
In settings 2, you can set a percentage by which the productivity for each department must be adjusted. This percentage can be positive or negative. A positive adjustment will lead to less hours and therefore lower labor costs. A negative adjustment percentage will result in more hours being forecasted, leading to higher labor costs.
Step 9: Calculate forecast hours using historical productivity + adjustments
Now that the adjustment percentage has been added to the basis productivity, we can apply this adjusted productivity to the forecasted cost driver to calculate the hours.