What is Guest Factor calculation?
Currently the guest factor in PMI is calculated on same month last year, adjusted to equivalent weekdays. There might be significant changes in the guest factor during a month, e.g. December which for many properties have primarily business guests in the beginning of the month and leisure in the end, and it is therefore not adequate to consider an entire month to be coherent. The guest factor should therefore be based upon seasons instead of calendar month.
What is its purpose?
It will lead to a higher forecasting accuracy when using guest nights as a revenue driver in other departments.
Using the calculation based on season instead of static last year, having 0 in guest factor 12+ months out is also eliminated.
How it all works?
- In Revise Guest Nights, the new ‘Based on Season’ is set as default, but the Based on Period should not be removed. Based on Season should use PMI Auto season for rooms.
- Depending on what period the tool is opened in, i.e. what period is selected in the live forecast display, the table will display an average of the potentially several seasons’ guest factors during the period
- If ‘Based on Custom’ is opened the season values are used, but manually entered values will override the season calculation for the period which is displayed
- Based on Season should be recalculated when the seasons are changed (manually or automatically) and exclude any auto outlier dates and dates with unsuccessful imports.
- The same period as the setting “History used (rolling years)” in the live forecast algorithm is used to calculate the guest factor, but if there are more than 8 dates with the same weekday available for a season, only the most recent 8 should be used.
- For days that are defined as a special period, holiday, or fixed date, the guest factor is based upon the same definition and equivalent day (date for fixed date). These days (dates) are not to be included when calculating any normal season’s guest factor.
- The guest factor will be updated, i.e. saved, for an unlimited number of future days until a new calculation or manual entry is made. This means that any given future date should have the last calculated guest factor, even if it is more than one year ahead.
- The guest factor should be based on the median guest factor of all days included in the season, i.e. NOT total guests per season divided by total rooms per season. The median is calculated only with days that have guests recorded; If there are 0 guests in a segment, that day is not used for calculating the median for the particular segment. But unless the day is detected as an outlier, all other segments with guests recorded can be used.
- PMI forecasting algorithm should always use the seasonality guest factor (plus OTB numbers) and if PMI auto forecasting is enabled, the guest factors can only be changed by d2o (same principle as with room seasonality).